APLIKASI FUNGSI TRANSFER MULTIVARIAT UNTUK PERAMALAN CURAH HUJAN DI KOTA MAKASSAR

Idul Fitri Abdullah Abdullah; Ruliana Ruliana; Muhammad Fahmuddin S

doi:10.35580/variansiunm117

Idul Fitri Abdullah Abdullah Universitas negeri Makassar
Ruliana Ruliana Department of Statistics, Universitas Negeri Makassar
Muhammad Fahmuddin S Department of Statistics, Universitas Negeri Makassar

DOI: https://doi.org/10.35580/variansiunm117

Keywords: ARIMA, Multivariate Transfer Function, Rainfall.

Abstract

This study aims to determine the transfer function model and factors that significantly affect the level of rainfall in Makassar city. This study uses rainfall data as the output series and air humidity (X₁), air temperature (X₂) and wind speed (X₃) as the input series. The data used is monthly data with a period of January 2013 - December 2022. The initial stage of modeling is done by determining the ARIMA model of each input series which is then used to calculate the identification of the transfer function model Based on the research obtained multivariate transfer function model X₁ (b=3, r=0, s=0) X₁2(b=0, r=0, s=0) ARIMA (2,1,0)(1,1,0)¹² with air humidity and air temperature being significant factors affecting rainfall in Makassar city.

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